Thursday, November 13, 2014
More Drafting Analysis
Me as Radiant
I think Dire has the advantage here in the lanes. Although Venge could roam from bottom to middle given the lane setup, Beastmaster doesn't really need it - he can still farm and gain levels safely with Wild Axes and Bottle crowing. Silencer would probably be best joining Nyx top lane, to both harass Luna and contest pulls by Shadow Shaman.
It's almost impossible to zone out Clockwerk from a lane, given Flare to farm and Cogs to use defensively, although Curse spam from Silencer might force Clock to operate with very little mana, and be vulnerable. Clock also doesn't really have a good counter to Razor's Plasma Field, and Razor's long attack range doesn't bring him into Cogs range to burn away his mana. Still, Clockwerk's a pretty tough offlaner.
Nyx is going to have trouble vs. top - Luna can use Lucent Beam to get him low (unless Nyx is VERY fast with Carapace), and if he gets too close to Shadow Shaman, he can be CC'ed ("Crowd Controlled") and then probably chased down and killed. Thus, Venge or Silencer should probably rotate to join him top.
Teamfights will once again come down to initiation and counter-initiation - either Beastmaster Blink + Roar or Clock Hook + Cogs. Timing of Silencer's Ult will be critical, although in general, Dire has some shorter cooldowns on their ultimates - AA only has a 40 sec CD on Ice Blast, and Clock only has a 70/55/40 CD on Hook. Thus, Dire will be "ready to fight" more often, and will be able to press their tower-pushing advantage (DK Dragon Form, Serpent Wards). AA and Clock also give Dire more of a global-pushing presence, although Nyx roaming might cause issues for the very-squishy SS and AA.
Lategame, Dire has stronger cores, unless Silencer somehow gets some good farm (although he's being laned as a support). Dire also has heroes that can easily clear Ancient stacks, which should increase their lead as the game lengthens.
I lost this draft pretty hard, both to laning choices and the draft itself.
Can't remember which side I drafted...
Top lane is fairly even. Ion shell is annoying, but so is Anchor Smash. Both laners quite tanky, and neither has a ton of burst.
Middle fairly even - Luna isn't a terribly strong mid, and Brew is tanky enough to mid against a ranged opponent. However, Luna, being squishier, is probably more vulnerable to ganks. Either mid could potentially kill the other after L6.
Aggro tri (all ranged) vs. WK + Warlock = Radiant will lose this one. Chen can be a strong support, but warding the jungle, or denying him early levels with harass / ganks will make him fairly useless all game.
Conclusion: Dire wins this draft.
I'd really like to try this pair of drafts in a real game. The more interesting part would be the tri-vs-tri. Lots of burst on both sides. Slight advantage to Radiant, as they have more stuns, and they are much tankier, but Dire's heroes are very spammy and good tri-laners.
The PA vs. Brew matchup is an interesting one, but PA will need help post-Level 6, as Brew will likely just be able to kill him (her?) straight up. The tri-lane will likely be decided by then, and roaming will likely decide middle more decisively than the mid match-up itself.
Bottom is probably advantage Radiant, simply because Lone Druid scales better than Bristle, Bristle won't be able to kill LD, and the supports that could gank LD are tied up in the tri-lane at top. The Bear is also going to be very dangerous to the squishy Dire supports, later in the game.
Teamfights will be interesting, and Nether Ward will do a lot of work against Ogre and Lina, but Lina especially. However, there's very little lockdown for the Bear (Concussive Shot won't work, Decrepify could work, Grave Chill could work?), and PA has lots of squishy targets to choose from.
Radiant has a much better lategame, but a weaker midgame. Dire has a chance to get ahead and close the game out before the game goes long, but if they don't, they will lose.
I favour Radiant slightly because of tankier heroes and more hard disables, but Radiant are also taking the bigger risks by running and aggro tri and a greedier mid.