Drafting Analysis: Good Draft, Stupid Lanes

Foreword

I didn't draft this game, but I was watching it.  I thought "yeah, that's a decent draft", and then the guy totally messed up the lanes. Thus, I thought it would be a good example to explain why the lanes wouldn't (likely) work, even though the draft itself is fine.

The Draft:

http://dota2draft.the-cluster.org/show?fp=d&pick=S1Zk0zb1Y2Zy1ZY4t4ZR2r0b1&ban=ZfZdMZmLzgZCKOze

Analysis:

The way these lanes sit, all Dire lanes will lose, even though I think they have a more balanced draft with better hero synergies.

Morph against Razor:  Razor has a longer attack range, can steal Morph's damage, and harass Morph a lot.  Yes, the roamers that the draft proposed COULD shift the balance, but only if the Razor was bad at denying and the lane stayed pushed out, or the Razor played badly when the supports were missing.

Meanwhile, Centaur isn't going to do well against Tide's Anchor Smash.  Tide can spam it, meaning that Centaur will find it hard to get CS.  Tide is also VERY tough, and hard to burst down.  Again, the roaming supports could make a difference, but the way the lane stands, it will lose.  Tide will get Blink before Centaur, and team fights will swing the way of Radiant.

Sven isn't up against a lot of disables in his lane, so he actually might survive, although with that much healing, the enemy tri-lane isn't going to worry about diving the tower.  Also, Necrophos' Heartstopper aura might drive Sven out of lane all by itself, even without much aggression from Rubick and Abaddon.  Sven won't be able to contest pulls, and Warcry isn't a huge movement buff for escaping.  Unlike using Centaur as a solo offlaner, Sven doesn't really get a game-changing ultimate at Level 6, and needs a lot more farm than just a Blink Dagger.

While I think the Radiant lineup lacks damage, push, and is healing-heavy, the lanes are quite strong.  Furthermore, after Sven is driven off or at a level disadvantage, Rubick and Abaddon can also roam, probably just to keep Razor safe and to annoy Morphling further.

In summary, I like the idea of Venge + Sky roaming (or pulling), and the Centaur solo.  Morph might do okay if the roamers get kills, but Sven cannot handle suicide lane - he's only got enough mana for 1 stun, and he MIGHT escape with Warcry, but he can't spam it.  Likely, he's going to be driven off lane, or feed.  He can't catch up easily by doing ancients early, unlike Tidehunter.

I would have laned Dire like this:
Mid:  Skywrath (vs. Razor) - Skywrath has long attack range, and can harass with nukes.  Instead of early-game roaming, he can go ganking once he gets level 6 (and might even kill Razor in lane).

Bottom:  Morph + Sven + Venge (vs. Tidehunter)  - supports could probably roam, or pull, or stay and drive Tidehunter away or even possibly kill him with Storm Hammer + Magic Missile + Waveform/Adaptive Strike.

Offlane:  Centaur (vs. Def trilane) - Centaur isn't going to get much farm, but his Level 6 ultimate is game-changing, and all he really needs is a Blink Dagger, and going early Tranquil Boots to help him survive this lane doesn't hurt his build or effectiveness.

Alternate Laning Strategy for Dire:
Mid:  Sven + Skywrath (vs. Razor) - Sven's farm is secured with the help of Skywrath's harass.  Could probably get a kill early on Razor, especially with a rotation from Venge.  Skywrath could also help with (top) rune control, while Venge secures bottom rune.

Bottom:  Morph + Venge (vs. Tidehunter) -  Morph isn't likely to get ganked and could probably solo this lane adequately against Tidehunter, but denying Tidehunter an early Blink Dagger is probably a good reason to keep Venge near this lane.  A haste rune from Skywrath could enable a gank on Tide.

Offlane:  Centaur (vs. tri-lane):  given the defensive tri-lane, this isn't a bad choice, for the same reasons mentioned above.