Drafting Practice Day One - Analysis

I did a bunch of drafting practice today on the dota2draft site.  Below is an analysis of the drafts.

Prelude:  the current meta seems to favour Tide and Shadow Shaman as supports, and Doom and Faceless Void as carries.  Lyncan is, as always, a high-winrate hero, and is frequently picked or banned for his pushing ability and midgame power.

Last Draft (me as Dire):

I felt that this was the most interesting draft, with the most interesting lineups.  Happened with the 4th draft in a row against the same person.

Anyone know how a Lone Druid vs. Nature's Prophet mid matchup would go?  I have no idea...

I think both tri-lanes were strong - too strong for vs. solo laner.  Centaur would probably do better than Razor, but both would be likely to get zoned out. 

In all, I think it got to the point where both my opponent and I were trying to out-think each other too much, and this draft is the result.
  
3rd Draft (me as Radiant):

I got Lycan here, and wanted to exploit yet protect him, but the Ursa pick caught me off-guard.  My later picks reflected my need to shut down Ursa (with Razor as anti-carry), and also take a kiter/split-pusher/escaper in Weaver.  However, I ended up without a good place for Weaver to lane.  He MIGHT have been able to survive and soak up XP against the tri-lane, but it would have been a crappy lane for him.  Might have been better to jungle Lycan and have Weaver + Bane safe lane...


2nd Draft (me as Dire):


I think I broke even here - this might even be an even game.  I'm unsure how good his aggro trilane would have been, with only a Disruption as lockdown, and some slows - a Cask from WD would probably be enough to disrupt their initiation.   OD would get free-farm on his lane, but wouldn't be able to zone out DS, either.  Nyx would likely do well against Warlock, and would probably be able to kill him at level 6 quite easily.

1st Draft (me as Radiant):


As our first draft against each other, I think my opponent wasn't expecting a tri-lane at all.  I think I won this draft pretty hard, as Invoker would decimate Doom mid, and probably drive him right out of lane.  Batrider would be in no danger offlane, and might even be able to kill AA with a level advantage.  If AA left the lane, Void wouldn't be able to lane against Bat without a ton of regen, Backtrack nonwithstanding.  He has no good offlaner against my tri-lane; with the dual lane, Abaddon would have a bad day, though Windranger could probably stay in the lane and get some farm with Power Shot.  However, with three stuns in my tri-lane, she'd have to be really careful not to get caught out.

Conclusion:

I found that as I went along, my lanes became less predictable.  It's a lot easier to mess up your opponent's lanes if he has very little flexibility in how he lanes his heroes.  I don't feel at any time that my draft was hard-countered, although I did worse for sure on the 3rd draft.