Thursday, August 14, 2014

Drafting Practice: Day Five - Still too greedy

Draft #1:  Me as Dire

I think I have the stronger laning stage here, simply because I have a jungler, and my offlane is fairly solid, while Invoker is going to destroy Beastmaster mid, though BM should get SOME farm with Axes and a Bottle.  Invoker, being ranged, has a straight advantage there, and Quas-Wex gives better staying power, while Exhort will drive Beastmaster out of the lane with high damage and Forge Spirits.

Dark Seer can be zoned out of lane, but even if his XP is denied, he should get a little bit of farm early on, at least enough to buy some basic items.  It is possible for him to get killed, but that's why they call it the suicide lane, right? ;-)

Timbersaw offlane should be pretty safe, although isn't likely to get a lot of farm.  If I manage to rotate Enigma from the jungle, and get a Shackle+Sheep initiation on him, Timbersaw could get blown up.

The downside is that he can afford to rotate his supports to kill my mid or even ambush safe lane, while I'm pretty much stuck in lane - Shadow Shaman will need to support Luna, at least with pulls and possibly even to threaten a kill on Timbersaw so he doesn't get too aggressive, and Enigma has to commit to jungling.

With some early pickoffs, he could easily get his free-farming Morphling his core items, and snowball from there.  A Nether Swap from Venge could save people in a teamfight, and BM's Roar could eliminate almost any one target.

His anti-push is decent, with Axes, Power Shot, and Chakram, but he doesn't have anything matching a Vacuum + Wall + Black Hole + Chaos Meteor + Serpent Wards.  Dark Seer's Wall of Replica is probably one of my better weapons, since a replicate of Morphling is going to put serious hurt onto his supports.

I think I lose this one if he has any good roaming.  Luna, unlike Morph, has no escape ability, and Morph will outcarry her eventually.  Timbersaw, Venge, and even Windranger can all give Morph space to farm, while my Luna will need babysitting.  I can kill towers better than he can with Eidolons + Serpent Wards + Forge Spirits, but I'm unlikely to get enough towers down before Morphling comes online to force fights, and meanwhile he can just split push or use anti-push to keep me at bay.

Draft #2:  Me as Radiant

My drafting is still really greedy.  The lanes look okay, except a roaming SD + Leshrac can eat anyone they choose.  SS + Naga could fight back decently, and might even kill Bounty Hunter in lane if they can surprise him with Dust or a Sentry, and Batrider could escape over cliffs, or trees, but Lone Druid is likely to die repeatedly if he gets too far from his tower, and NP isn't going to be able to farm very safely.

Tinker would probably need help mid against Batrider early game, although with a Bottle and some rocket spam, he might be able to threaten Bat enough to get some farm.

His strategy will rely on successful pickoffs, while mine relies on getting Core items up (Blink on Bat, basic carry items), while NOT getting picked off.  Given how slowly my carries come online, his Ember can force fights earlier and gain ground.  Tinker will be partially countered by NP, but that depends greatly on Bat getting items and being able to roam and threaten Tinker with a Bat+NP combo.  Once Bounty comes online, the jungle and even solo or split-pushing will be extremely unsafe for me, although it wouldn't be difficult for me to group up and push towers down quickly with Bear + Serpent Wards + Treants.

Basically, I've given him the initiative.  If I can hold off, I should win quite handily lategame, but it's going to be quite an uphill battle for me.

Draft #3:  Me as Dire

I'm really not sure who wins this one.  Venomancer could do decently well against Razor early game, since it's Plague Wards and poison damage that makes Veno dangerous mid, not whether Razor can steal damage or not.  My supports will be forced to stay in lane and defend Spectre, but if he roams his supports, his tri-lane will fail.  Invoker and Elder Titan will probably tie that lane, although if Razor could rotate bottom, Invoker would probably die (unless he had Ghost Walk ready).

I was aiming for teamfight this game, instead of heavy push or gank, and Razor should be able to shut down Morphling quite effectively with Static Link, and Spectre will demolish his squishy supports with Haunt.  My combo is Burrowstrike + Epi into Static Storm and/or Kinetic Field, into Earthsplitter, while Spectre makes a nuisance of herself with Haunt, hopefully distracting the enemy supports.  Razor is likely to get disabled by Bane, but if I win the teamfight, Disruptor should enable me to pick off stragglers and increase the magnitude of my win.

His combo is decent as well - Fissure/Echoslam + Poison Nova + Invoker Bullshit + Waveform, while Bane disables 2 targets with Nightmare + Ult, and possibly even shuts down Razor's damage with Enfeeble (although Razor should be able to steal a lot back).

Neither of us has a heavy focus on push, but I think his is a bit better with Invoker, Morph, and Veno (although I've found that Veno's wards are better anti-push than push).

This match would all come down to the aggro trilane.  If he wins, he snowballs and my Spectre becomes useless.  If I win, not only does his Morph take too long to come online, but my Sand King can jungle more easily than his Earthshaker can farm, and my Razor + Spectre should outcarry even Morphling.  As right-click damage increases in importance, Elder Titan's armor reduction will hurt Morph more and more.

I think I'm set up quite nicely for a defensive tri-lane, but his aggro tri-lane is quite strong as well.  I have a feeling that I'd lose Disruptor a couple of times...

Draft #4:  Me as Radiant

I think Death Prophet wins mid against the melee Naga, and Nyx really isn't going to threaten my safe lane, nor be able to solo-kill Enigma early game.  Centaur can probably win against Doom if his supports leave to roam, but it depends a great deal on what creep Doom manages to find.  If SS and AA are free to roam, my mid could die, and Enigma will feel unsafe in his own woods.  His Nyx will also discourage Lycan from solo split pushing, especially if Nyx gets some early kills and picks up some items.

His picks against my early Lycan are good, and he has lots of disables to prevent Lycan from wreaking havoc on his back lines during teamfights.  However, aside from a very good Nyx initiation, he will have more trouble starting fights than I will, with Centaur or Enigma blinking in.  However, he can also nullify a teamfight with Naga, or set up Nyx very effectively with a Song of the Siren initiation (this would depend greatly on his team coordination - a lot of Naga pub players could screw this up horribly).

I think I have a decent shot at winning this matchup, but it would depend greatly on pickoffs and initiation.

I don't think Dazzle was the right pick, here.  Someone a little more bursty, or with a disable might have been better.  The idea was Weave + Exorcism (Spirits) + Physical damage (Howl, Wolves, Eidolons) would be quite effective.

My last-pick of Centaur was intended to have a semi-counter for Song, and Centaur would have to save his Stampede for after Song of the Siren, since my team would either need to retreat (if initiated upon), or pursue (if Song was used to retreat).

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